The Master of Megaproject Failure

Most of the world's largest construction projects are destined to go over budget and behind schedule. Bent Flyvbjerg discovered that humans suffer from a persistent optimism bias that makes us ignore reality when planning massive infrastructure.

After studying thousands of global projects, Flyvbjerg proved that cost overruns are not just accidents but predictable patterns. He found that planners consistently underestimate complexity because they imagine a best-case scenario rather than historical trends. To fix this, he advocates for comparing new projects against the real outcomes of similar past endeavors. His work has effectively changed how governments approach everything from railways to Olympic stadiums.