Why Your Choices May Not Matter

Causal decision theory argues you should only choose actions that directly cause a good outcome. Surprisingly, it ignores signs that a great result is coming if that sign is not actually caused by your specific choice.

Most people naturally use evidential reasoning, picking actions that suggest a positive result is likely. However, causal theorists argue this is a trap because you cannot change the past or independent events just by hoping they correlate with your actions. Instead, they focus purely on the mechanical link between a specific choice and its physical effect. This school of thought forces us to separate what we can actually influence from what we merely observe happening.